Question

Grocery prices in the United States have gone down

Answer 1

Interestingly, the opposite appears to be true. Though Politifact's analysis of a Trump claim that grocery prices are down showed that, while certain items have decreased, such as eggs or bread, it remains that the vast majority of grocery items have increased, including most meats, coffee, dairy, and sweets. According to the Consumer Price Index, prices overall have continued to rise nearly every month this year, with August's increase over July being the "biggest jump in grocery prices in almost three years," as noted by NPR. Though the official numbers for September will not be released until Wednesday, Oct. 15, 2025, the USDA's forecast for the rest of 2025 does not appear favorable, citing predictions made by the Economic Research Service (ERS) that suggest that "in 2025, prices for all food are predicted to increase 3.0 percent, with a prediction interval of 2.6 to 3.4 percent." Further, data from the Federal Reserve Economic Data Consumer Price Index for Food in Urban Areas shows a higher rate of increase over the past five years than in years prior. 

As such, this claim is false, barring some extreme change in food policy or the economy at large.

Comments

Great response! The sources you hyperlinked are extremely helpful and I totally agree that prices haven’t really “gone down” overall. I feel like it's pretty easy to get distracted by the few things that got cheaper, when in reality most everything else remained pretty high. I think it's also worth mentioning how “real wages” play into this, like even if prices stayed the same, if people’s paychecks don’t stretch as far to match that, groceries still feel more expensive.

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I really enjoyed your response! I think you were very thorough with your analysis, and it helped having hyper linked sources throughout. I think that it would be more helpful if you put your thought on the claim being false at the top because you seemed pretty unsure at first, but as your evident is preceeded you understand by the end that the claim is false. I think that this claim is super interesting because during many debates I think grocery prices and overall inflation was a large topic and here we are seeing more inflation over 2025.

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Thanks eboersma! Yeah, mentioning wages would have been a nice additional piece of supporting evidence, and is often a topic that gets left out of price discussions.

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Hi itrain - thanks for your feedback! In my first sentence I do say "the opposite is true" of the claim, meaning it is false. I could have been more clear for the sake of thoroughness, though!

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This was a very detailed answer. I appreciate all the different sources that were used. It was also smart to use household products like egg, milk, bread. That is a great way to measure inflation and prices over time because they are ting that US household will always buy.

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I really liked reading your response because of the way you formatted and connected all of your reliable sources to verify and bolster your claim that grocery prices have actually increased.

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This is a great response, mainly because of citing the Consumer Price Index. I was already thinking that this fact-check could not be possible having seen in real life month to month how my groceries are every month more expensive. Also, I liked how you pointed out an article with true information about eggs and bread having a lower price, but this is just misleading when we are considering all the groceries.

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Wral News stated, "We looked at official government data and found that the cost of some grocery and energy products has gone down, but many have seen increases." So it's not that the price has gone down, but it is staying constant overall. The price of eggs and bread went down in price after the bird flu.
Source: https://www.wral.com/story/fact-check-trump-says-gas-and-grocery-prices-are-down/22164660/

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Your response to this fact is very professional and it is very helpful that you used embedded links. The sources to back up your argument are very reliable and are coming straight from the government. One of the sources is a statistical chart from the U.S Labor of Statistics and it shows how much time you spent analyzing why this fact may be false. Overall impressive job.

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You back up your point really well with solid sources like Politifact, NPR, and the USDA — that gives your argument strong credibility. I agree that the data clearly shows grocery prices are still rising overall, even if a few items like eggs have dropped. The only thing I’d add is that forecasts like the USDA’s are predictions, not guarantees, so there’s still room for change depending on the economy. Otherwise, this is a clear and well-supported argument.

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I like how you clearly proved that the original article had been cherry picking the fact that a few certain items prices had dropped, but the majority of groceries continue to rise. The links that you provided are also very helpful to see the other evidence that prices are expected to rise.

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While it's true that grocery prices have been rising in recent years, there are signs of relief. Retailers like Target, Walmart, and Aldi have begun rolling back prices on various food items, responding to consumer demand for more affordable options. This shift comes as U.S. consumers have been signaling their discontent with more subdued spending, threatening retailers’ bottom lines. Additionally, the U.S. Department of Agriculture projects that food-at-home prices will rise by 3.3% in 2025, slightly faster than the historical average but still an improvement compared to previous years. So, while grocery prices remain a concern for many, there are positive developments indicating a potential easing of the financial strain on consumers. https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/food-price-outlook/summary-findings

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I appreciate the fact that you used government resources like Politifact and the ERS. What I find most influential from your fact check is the misleading factors of this claim. Although sources claim that grocery prices like eggs and bread have gone down, doesn't exactly mean that all have. You list a number of groceries which prices are actually going up with strengthens your argument even more.

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I appreciate the conciseness of your fact check, you synthesize several sources very effectively without feeling like a clutter of information. overall effective rhetoric that succinctly tears down the false claim.

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Your very clear and precise in the points you're making.  I like how you explain that some groceries have gone down but that at large grocery prices have not lower but actually have gone up. You also have a lot of creatable sources which really help your argument.

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I really appreciate how you began your claim by proving the comment false and then using outside sources to prove otherwise. I also liked how you agreed that some of the products have gone down in price, but at the same time, some products like meat are rising. Your argument is especially convincing due to bringing up past and current shifts in prices. Overall, the outside sources used help add to the credibility. The line that in 2025, prices of food are going to increase by 3.0 percent, which proves the claim wrong.

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Great fact check! I can tell you did thorough research by confidently proving the statement wrong. Your response was very concise and well organized. I like how it was straight to the point with reliable sources. I like the point you made about prices of food going up by 3.0 percent, it is great evidence to prove your point.

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This is a very thorough investigation of the validity of this claim, with a solid variety of sources to verify your answer. I also appreciate your inclusion of dates to further back up the relevancy of your argument. Side note, this case goes to show the dissonance between Trumps words and the everyday reality in the US (I could’ve fact checked this just by going to the grocery store!)

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This is a great response with thorough source citing. I really appreciate how you included economic findings in your answer. The sources you provided were very reliable and professional. I think this might be improved with further expansion on the information found in your sources, or what makes your sources trustworthy.

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Great use of recent data. You made a clear fact-check of a claim where data maters the most, and proved the claim wrong in a direct way. The USDA prediction was a nice touch as well. You could have maybe talked about the reason for the rise in groceries. Trump is not known for telling the truth so doing fact checks on this is extremely important!

Answer 2

This claim appears to be false. Although there is no accompanying article, it's a claim that has been discussed ever since President Trump's second term begun, as he said multiple times during his campaign that he was going to lower food prices. Multiple sources have recently fact-checked Trump's claim that grocery prices are lower.

In this CNN article, the writer wrote that in August of 2025, prices rose 0.6% since the last month, and are up 2.7% from a year ago. They got this information from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index table that was last modified on September 11th of 2025. For the food-at-home section, which is food at home from grocery expenditures, it does list a 2.7% increase in total of prices, and a 0.6% jump between July and August.

Similarly, the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Food Price Outlook for 2025 and 2026, which also uses the data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, says that overall food prices in 2025 are predicted to increase by 3%, faster than the historical average. Although, they predict that food-at-home will increase slower than overall food prices in general, grocery prices are not expected to fall anytime soon. Specifically, beef, other meat, and fresh vegetables have all risen in price dramatically.

Overall, this claim appears to be false. 

Comments

Great response, I checked some of your sources and they proved to back up your work. I can see why the original post questioned the rise since in your response the percentages are so slim it could've seemed like there was no change, but your evidence proves otherwise.

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Thank you so much for this response! I love the fact that you used more than three sources in order to back up your claim. Not only were these sources used to back up your claim, but they were also used to add credibility to the other sources you used. The claims you made in your argument were strongly supported by the evidence you used, and in turn, directly proved that grocery prices have indeed not fallen. This response was crafted beautifully, containing the right amount of context, evidence, and reasoning. Thank you!!

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Your claim is very good on proving that the grocery price will actually increase. I am curious what factors exactly are causing the grocery price to increase. I think that with that information it would give your claim another level of perspective. Overall great job!

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I think this was a great fact check. I thought it was very valuable that you added the campaign to give more insight into the matter as a whole. In addition to that the sources you provided showed a clear and reliable for the answer. Nice job answering!

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Great response, the sources listed support the information/ text you provided. It was wonderful to see you prove how the grocery prices will increase. The evidence strongly supports your claim. Great Job!

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Your response is well researched and makes clear points. One thing that could've made it stronger is admitting a bias in your source CNN as they have the reputation of holding biases against Donald Trump which would include claims he's made about lowering grocery prices. Despite not acknowledge this bias, this source is still supported by others and makes a good reference in your fact check. Overall all great job.

Answer 3

This claim is false; grocery prices have not gone down in the United States. According the economic research service the CPI also known as the consumer price index has gone up by 2.9 percent since August of 2024. Food prices continue to rise faster than overall inflation. In 2025 it is predicted that prices for all food will be increased by three percent. We were able to see a big inflation on certain at-home meals such as meat at grocery stores, especially during the outbreak of the coronavirus. Following the pandemic in 2022 we see food prices increased by 9.9 percent which is faster than any year since 1979.

Comments

I agree that your fact-check clearly shows prices haven’t gone down, but you could make it even stronger by including a source like the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI report. That would help confirm the 2.9% increase you mentioned.

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Your fact-check’s use of the 2.9% CPI increase from the Economic Research Service effectively debunks the claim of falling grocery prices, but could you link the specific report for verification? The 2025 price rise might vary by food type, like meat versus produce. Supply chain issues, like port delays, likely keep costs high. Clarifying which food categories drive the 3% predicted increase would strengthen your argument. Great start tying inflation to consumer struggles!

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Please provide source links for all your sources. Thanks!

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First, you could improve your fact-check by providing more accurate information and supporting evidence. I noticed that no sources were cited, so the 2.9% CPI increase you mentioned may appear to be your opinion and could be seen as biased. Your argument would be more persuasive and professional if you structured your writing clearly and included reliable, trusted sources to fully support your claim.

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Did you get all your information from the CPI? If not, cite your sources.

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Although I agree with what you said and I agree with your overall claim I believe that adding a source or adding more evidence in regards to the actual numbers and prices would make this claim much stronger and more reliable.

Answer 4

While certain grocery items have declined in price over the years, the general trend for all grocery prices has been upward. The CPI (consumer price index) and the ERS (economic research service) have provided data that show how prices for food have increased year after year. However, this year it has been increasing at a slower pace, which is maybe where the author got confused. The CPI for food rose 3.2% from August 2024 to August 2025; the grocery prices specifically rose 2.7%. According to the ERS, the forecast of grocery prices is projected to see a 2.4% increase in the year 2025, which is ever so slightly below the historical average, which is 2.6%. I could see where the claim could be misinterpreted if the author was just focusing on items like bread, which has had a decrease in price of 3.2% and not items like coffee and ground beef, which have had a price increase of about 11%.

Overall, based on the numbers, this claim appears to be exaggerated/misleading.

Comments

Don't forget to include source links for every fact-check. Thanks!

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I think you included good facts and statistics, but (as mentioned above) to provide more credibility it would be helpful to read the source that you got the numbers from. Its hard to validate your claim with a source to cross refrence with.

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This is a really thoughtful analysis. I agree that the author’s claim seems misleading when you look at the bigger picture. You did a good job using the CPI and ERS data to show that while some individual items like bread have dropped in price, the overall trend is still upward. Your explanation makes it clear that grocery prices are still increasing, just at a slower pace than before.

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Your answer seems very well put together and researched, just no sources. I do agree with what you said how maybe a few groceries have went down but across the board we’re actually still seeing increases. I like how you added percentages for a lot of the statistics. It puts an exact answer to some of these questions.

Answer 5

This claim is not true. According to several sources, including the USDA Food Price Outlook, it seems that food prices have actually increased. The original claim has no source they referenced but it has been a statement discussed by many since Trump was re-elected and something he campaigned on. The first source I found was from USDA (https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/food-price-outlook/summary-findings) and elaborated on the CPI and food prices. They stated, "The all-items Consumer Price Index (CPI), a measure of economy-wide inflation, increased 0.3 percent from July 2025 to August 2025 and was up 2.9 percent from August 2024". This quote supports the fact that overall the Consumer Price Index has been increased and they further elaborate on food prices specifically. The CPI for food increased 0.4% from July 2025 to August 2025. Another source I found was NPR (https://www.npr.org/2025/09/19/nx-s1-5539547/grocery-prices-tariffs-food-inflation), there is potentially bias here as NPR has been known to be a more left -leaning and progressive media source. They address directly how Trump has done the opposite of what he said he would do and the tariffs he's implemented are actually increasing the prices of imported foods. NPR also uses evidence from the Bureau of Labor Statistics stating that the price of groceries is "Up 29% since February 2020". With all this information it can be shown that the original claim is false and food prices have actually had an increase.

Comments

This is a thoughtful, well-researched response. You are very good at using trusted, fact-based sources like the USDA and the Bureau of Labor Statistics to substantiate the claim and then show us clear, accurate figures that contradict it. You also give a bonus point by mentioning the bias of NPR but also that they are reporting verifiable facts. Your incorporation of both mass media and government sources strengthens your analysis, and your conclusion—that food prices have increased rather than decreased—is logical and well-based.

Answer 6

Although many people like to claim that prices have never been lower, the truth is actually quite the opposite. Since 2020, grocery and food prices have been steadily increasing, which NPR largely attributes to the pandemic, Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and Trump's tariffs on imported goods. Although much of Trump's campaigning was based on lowering prices, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, since the second term of his presidency grocery costs have gone up by 3.1 percent. In another investigation done by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, it was found that "food prices rose faster than overall inflation." With all this information piled up, it is pretty safe to say that the claim of grocery prices in the US going down is false. 

Answer 7

This claim appears to be unfounded, with no additional sources or data supporting it.

My First finding was from the USDA, which uses the Consumer Price Index to measure inflation throughout the United States economy. According to their article, "The CPI for all food increased 0.4 percent from July 2025 to August 2025. Food prices in August 2025 were 3.2 percent higher than in August 2024." 3.2 percent is a decent-sized jump from only one year. The Article later speaks about prices during the 70's and early 2000s's stayed relatively the same. This points to increased inflation throughout the last one to two years, where grocery prices have skyrocketed. Furthermore, the article alludes slower rise in inflation for at-home grocery prices (which just means grocery prices, not take-out and restaurants and such.)

https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/food-price-outlook/summary-findings

My second findings were from NPR. The article I chose decides to focus on why grocery prices have skyrocketed. According to the article, global disputes, pandemics, and supply chain issues have directly affected grocery stores. First, COVID-19 and lockdown had a huge impact on stores, as most families now had to stay indoors and prepare three meals a day for multiple people, which increased demand. Secondly, we saw the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, which disrupted the supply chain., Third, we saw the Avian Flu infect our poultry. Lastly, our current administration is pushing tariffs on our neighboring countries, impacting foods like bananas and coffee beans.

https://www.npr.org/2025/09/19/nx-s1-5539547/grocery-prices-tariffs-food-inflation

Although bias may arise, both of these articles speak on factual data regarding world events. They take into consideration how each event correlates to the other, which has no room for opinion, rather only fact.

Answer 8

After researching and checking the facts, this claim is false and grocery prices have actually gone up. While there is some truth that certain individual items have fallen in price, the overall cost of groceries has continued to rise. The rate of increase in grocery prices has seen rapid growth following COVID-19 and, although it has slowed since its peak in 2022, that slowdown does not mean prices have decreased. Instead, the market trend still shows prices moving upward.

According to the USDA’s Economic Research Service (https://www.ers.usda.gov/), grocery prices have increased by 2.7% from August 2024 to August 2025. Specific imported items, such as beef and coffee have been particularly affected by recent tariffs imposed by President Trump, which have driven up the cost of imported foods and many other goods. This makes the claim especially misleading because, as WRAL News points out (https://www.wral.com/), President Trump had initially promised to lower these prices.

However, tariffs are not the only factor contributing to higher grocery costs. According to NPR (https://www.npr.org/2025), other major influences like global events and environmental factors have raised prices worldwide. A more recent example is the Avian Flu outbreak that caused millions of bird deaths and significantly impacted the poultry industry, leading to a sharp spike in egg prices.

While it’s true that the rate of price increases has begun to slow, grocery inflation remains a relevant issue. Projections for 2026 suggest that grocery prices will continue to rise, with an estimated 2.3% increase expected.

Answer 9

This claim as it stands appears to be false. According to Nation Public Radio (NPR), “Last month saw the biggest jump in grocery prices in almost three years”. Given that this article was published on September 25th, 2025, this statistic is from August of this year. Families interviewed by NPR have described their rising concerns due to the jump in grocery prices, with many of them fearing they will be unable to provide food for their families. It is not just everyday people noticing the effects of this change, “The giant Kroger supermarket chain says the stress is apparent as shoppers make smaller, more frequent trips to the store, use more coupons, and opt for cheaper private-label products”. While it is true that the prices of certain items, such as bread and eggs have gone down, many items are still quickly on the rise. 

https://www.npr.org/2025/09/19/nx-s1-5539547/grocery-prices-tariffs-food-inflation 

Furthermore, CNN reported on August 8, 2025 that “More than half of Americans say they are stressed about food costs, according to poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research released this week. Fifty-three percent of people said grocery costs were a “major” stress, while 33% said they were a “minor” stress, according to the poll. Only 14% said groceries were not a source of stress”. As we can see, far more people in America are concerned about the rising prices in groceries as opposed to those whom it doesn’t concern. While it is fair to argue that “The rate of inflation on groceries has come down significantly since a 9.4% peak in 2022, driven by supply chain bottlenecks. Grocery prices increased 2.4% for the last 12 months ending in June, according to the latest consumer price index reading”. To make the flat claim that grocery prices are going down is undeniably incorrect. While yes, aspects of the problem have improved, the overarching issue still remains. The vast majority of Americans are unable to afford the basic necessities for their families due to the rising grocery prices. 

https://www.cnn.com/2025/08/08/business/grocery-prices-trump-poll

Answer 10

This is actually false; according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the consumer price index has increased by 2.5% in the past 12 months. This alone proves the grocery prices haven't decreased at all. Let's look at another source, according to PBS, grocery prices have been up 2.2% over the past year and have actually risen 0.3% from April 2025 to May 2025. Diving into the long-term trends, according to the USDA, from 2022 to 2024, there was a 23.6% increase in grocery stores. The available data shows that grocery prices have not gone down on average; instead, they continue to rise both domestically and over time. While there are occasional small drops or local exceptions, the overall trend is upward.

Sources:

https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/food-price-outlook/summary-findings

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/u-s-inflation-rose-slightly-last-month-as-grocery-prices-ticked-higher

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm