Question

Grocery prices in the United States have gone down

Answer 1

Interestingly, the opposite appears to be true. Though Politifact's analysis of a Trump claim that grocery prices are down showed that, while certain items have decreased, such as eggs or bread, it remains that the vast majority of grocery items have increased, including most meats, coffee, dairy, and sweets. According to the Consumer Price Index, prices overall have continued to rise nearly every month this year, with August's increase over July being the "biggest jump in grocery prices in almost three years," as noted by NPR. Though the official numbers for September will not be released until Wednesday, Oct. 15, 2025, the USDA's forecast for the rest of 2025 does not appear favorable, citing predictions made by the Economic Research Service (ERS) that suggest that "in 2025, prices for all food are predicted to increase 3.0 percent, with a prediction interval of 2.6 to 3.4 percent." Further, data from the Federal Reserve Economic Data Consumer Price Index for Food in Urban Areas shows a higher rate of increase over the past five years than in years prior. 

As such, this claim is false, barring some extreme change in food policy or the economy at large.

Comments

Great response! The sources you hyperlinked are extremely helpful and I totally agree that prices haven’t really “gone down” overall. I feel like it's pretty easy to get distracted by the few things that got cheaper, when in reality most everything else remained pretty high. I think it's also worth mentioning how “real wages” play into this, like even if prices stayed the same, if people’s paychecks don’t stretch as far to match that, groceries still feel more expensive.

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I really enjoyed your response! I think you were very thorough with your analysis, and it helped having hyper linked sources throughout. I think that it would be more helpful if you put your thought on the claim being false at the top because you seemed pretty unsure at first, but as your evident is preceeded you understand by the end that the claim is false. I think that this claim is super interesting because during many debates I think grocery prices and overall inflation was a large topic and here we are seeing more inflation over 2025.

Answer 2

This claim appears to be false. Although there is no accompanying article, it's a claim that has been discussed ever since President Trump's second term begun, as he said multiple times during his campaign that he was going to lower food prices. Multiple sources have recently fact-checked Trump's claim that grocery prices are lower.

In this CNN article, the writer wrote that in August of 2025, prices rose 0.6% since the last month, and are up 2.7% from a year ago. They got this information from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index table that was last modified on September 11th of 2025. For the food-at-home section, which is food at home from grocery expenditures, it does list a 2.7% increase in total of prices, and a 0.6% jump between July and August.

Similarly, the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Food Price Outlook for 2025 and 2026, which also uses the data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, says that overall food prices in 2025 are predicted to increase by 3%, faster than the historical average. Although, they predict that food-at-home will increase slower than overall food prices in general, grocery prices are not expected to fall anytime soon. Specifically, beef, other meat, and fresh vegetables have all risen in price dramatically.

Overall, this claim appears to be false. 

Answer 3

This claim is false; grocery prices have not gone down in the United States. According the economic research service the CPI also known as the consumer price index has gone up by 2.9 percent since August of 2024. Food prices continue to rise faster than overall inflation. In 2025 it is predicted that prices for all food will be increased by three percent. We were able to see a big inflation on certain at-home meals such as meat at grocery stores, especially during the outbreak of the coronavirus. Following the pandemic in 2022 we see food prices increased by 9.9 percent which is faster than any year since 1979.

Comments

I agree that your fact-check clearly shows prices haven’t gone down, but you could make it even stronger by including a source like the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI report. That would help confirm the 2.9% increase you mentioned.

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Your fact-check’s use of the 2.9% CPI increase from the Economic Research Service effectively debunks the claim of falling grocery prices, but could you link the specific report for verification? The 2025 price rise might vary by food type, like meat versus produce. Supply chain issues, like port delays, likely keep costs high. Clarifying which food categories drive the 3% predicted increase would strengthen your argument. Great start tying inflation to consumer struggles!

Answer 4

While certain grocery items have declined in price over the years, the general trend for all grocery prices has been upward. The CPI (consumer price index) and the ERS (economic research service) have provided data that show how prices for food have increased year after year. However, this year it has been increasing at a slower pace, which is maybe where the author got confused. The CPI for food rose 3.2% from August 2024 to August 2025; the grocery prices specifically rose 2.7%. According to the ERS, the forecast of grocery prices is projected to see a 2.4% increase in the year 2025, which is ever so slightly below the historical average, which is 2.6%. I could see where the claim could be misinterpreted if the author was just focusing on items like bread, which has had a decrease in price of 3.2% and not items like coffee and ground beef, which have had a price increase of about 11%.

Overall, based on the numbers, this claim appears to be exaggerated/misleading.

Answer 5

This claim is not true. According to several sources, including the USDA Food Price Outlook, it seems that food prices have actually increased. The original claim has no source they referenced but it has been a statement discussed by many since Trump was re-elected and something he campaigned on. The first source I found was from USDA (https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/food-price-outlook/summary-findings) and elaborated on the CPI and food prices. They stated, "The all-items Consumer Price Index (CPI), a measure of economy-wide inflation, increased 0.3 percent from July 2025 to August 2025 and was up 2.9 percent from August 2024". This quote supports the fact that overall the Consumer Price Index has been increased and they further elaborate on food prices specifically. The CPI for food increased 0.4% from July 2025 to August 2025. Another source I found was NPR (https://www.npr.org/2025/09/19/nx-s1-5539547/grocery-prices-tariffs-food-inflation), there is potentially bias here as NPR has been known to be a more left -leaning and progressive media source. They address directly how Trump has done the opposite of what he said he would do and the tariffs he's implemented are actually increasing the prices of imported foods. NPR also uses evidence from the Bureau of Labor Statistics stating that the price of groceries is "Up 29% since February 2020". With all this information it can be shown that the original claim is false and food prices have actually had an increase.

Answer 6

Although many people like to claim that prices have never been lower, the truth is actually quite the opposite. Since 2020, grocery and food prices have been steadily increasing, which NPR largely attributes to the pandemic, Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and Trump's tariffs on imported goods. Although much of Trump's campaigning was based on lowering prices, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, since the second term of his presidency grocery costs have gone up by 3.1 percent. In another investigation done by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, it was found that "food prices rose faster than overall inflation." With all this information piled up, it is pretty safe to say that the claim of grocery prices in the US going down is false.