Here’s how I see the “inflation is down” claim after reading the Times article piece linked below. The CPI in July is up 2.9% year over year, which is the smallest bump since early 2021. So yes, inflation is actively cooling down. Meaning the pace of price increases has slowed, not that prices rolled back to 2019. The Times article also states groceries are still about 25% higher than they were before the pandemic. That follows with real life for me. The total at checkout isn’t as shocking like last year, but it’s still higher than what I remember before covid hit.
The article also explains why people shouldn’t expect or demand prices to fall across the board. Actual deflation sounds nice on paper, but economists point out it usually signals a weak economy where spending and incomes slide. If people expect prices to drop tomorrow, they wait to buy the big stuff, and that can create the snowball effect. What matters right now is disinflation. Even in june it showed a small month by month dip of 0.1%, and in stretches like this mortgage rates tend to ease. That makes planning a bit less chaotic, whether you’re looking at a car loan or just simply trying to keep a budget.
So the claim “inflation has decreased” is true as a rate, not as a rewind. Prices climbed fast for a few years and now they’re climbing yet slower. That’s why it still currently feels expensive while the data increases positively. I’m not quite doing victory laps at the grocery store, but I’ll take steadier prices and slightly better borrowing conditions over the roller coaster.
https://time.com/7005553/inflation-grocery-prices-rates/