Oregon is entering a recession

Question

In just one year, 25,000 jobs were created in Oregon. In the next 365 days, 25,000 jobs were lost. Oregon is experiencing a $15 billion shortage in federal funding due to Republican enforced budget cuts to health insurance, meal assistance, and education. The last time Oregon was in a recession was 2020 amidst the pandemic. Before that, it was the great recession of 2008. These budget cuts are harming Oregon and 21 other states and unemployment is at a dangerous high. "The national economy is slowing and will continue to slow through the rest of the year, according to Riccadonna. At the end of 2024, the national economy was growing at about 2.5%. It has since slowed to about 2%, and forecasters project that it will drop to about 1% in the next year, sparking recession fears." (Baumhardt 2025). 

Answer 1

From doing more research into this, I can conclude that this statement is true. Oregon is entering a recession of the loss of jobs due to the increase in tariffs and cutting of federal jobs. But also that it isn't just Oregon. 

Koin 6 says that there's actually about 22 states that are also experiencing a recession in jobs and increase of tariffs. Including (but not all); Wyoming, Montana, Minnesota, Mississippi, Kansas, Washington Georgia and more. This is also due to hiring plans falling since 2009. https://www.koin.com/news/oregon/22-states-including-oregon-are-in-a-recession-or-on-the-brink-financial-company-says/

According to another article, by Fortune, unemployment has reached 4.3% and lower to middle-class families are experiencing debt and slow wage growth due to the government shutdown. It's also weakening consumer confidence, especially those who make under $35,000. 22 states are undergoing into a recession, 13 are seeing growth and 12 are considered "treading water." https://fortune.com/2025/10/09/america-feels-recession-state-dependent-income-cohort-moody-zandi/

So yes, Oregon and other states are experiencing a recession while other states are experiencing the opposite due to their wealth. 

Answer 2

After researching multiple credible sources, it is clear that Oregon’s economy is slowing down significantly, though it is not officially in a recession. The state has lost nearly 25,000 jobs over the past year, and faces a projected $25 billion loss in federal funding due to cuts that will affect health care, food assistance, and education programs. According to Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics, “Twenty-two states are either in a recession or on the verge of a downturn,” placing Oregon on the verge rather than fully in one (NewsNation, 2025). Similarly, The Oregonian reports that “Oregon employers have reported more than 11,000 layoffs since the start of last year, a torrid pace of job cuts amid the steady deterioration of the state’s labor market” (Rogoway, 2025). Yet, as the Oregon Legislative Revenue Office recently stated, “The broader state economy is likely to avoid recession as long as the national economy holds up. However, sector-specific recessions are likely” (“Oregon Economy Slowing, Likely Not in a Recession,” 2025). Altogether, these reports show that while Oregon is experiencing economic strain and rising unemployment, the state is not yet in a full recession though it remains vulnerable if current trends continue.

Articles: https://www.koin.com/news/oregon/22-states-including-oregon-are-in-a-recession-or-on-the-brink-financial-company-says/

https://www.oregonlive.com/business/2025/09/oregon-mass-layoffs-approach-great-recession-levels.html

https://www.orcities.org/resources/communications/bulletin/oregon-economy-slowing-25

Answer 3

After reviewing the available data, I found that the claim “Oregon is entering a recession” is exaggerated/misleading rather than clearly true or entirely false. According to the Oregon Capital Chronicle, Oregon’s economy is slowing with a projected $888 million revenue shortfall and a 27 % chance of recession in the next 12 months (up from 25 %). https://oregoncapitalchronicle.com/2025/08/27/oregon-economy-slows-will-take-888-million-revenue-hit-in-next-two-years-from-trump-budget/ Meanwhile, an August report from Oregon’s Legislative Revenue Office says that although employment and GDP are under pressure, the state economy is still avoiding a full recession for now. https://www.orcities.org/resources/communications/bulletin/oregon-economy-slowing-25 Given that official indicators such as unemployment filings have not yet shown a broad contraction, the evidence undermines the statement that a recession already exists. The bias to note: state economists may emphasise forecasts to influence policy decisions, while media headlines like “entering a recession” seek attention. I attempted to contact the state economist’s office but found only publicly released forecasts, no new comment directly addressing the claim. In conclusion, while Oregon’s economic signals are troubling and the risk of recession is real, stating that the state is entering a recession is not fully supported. The claim stretches current data into a dramatic conclusion.

Answer 4

After doing research I found the claim that Oregon is entering a recession to be false.

While Oregon’s economy has been slowing down and faces high risks of a downturn, there is no real evidence that the state is currently in a recession. Economic reports show slower growth, pressures in budget, and increased uncertainty. But Oregon’s chief economist and multiple reliable sources explain that the situation is more of a slowdown, and not a recession.

Economic forecasts reveal that the Oregon economy is slowing down, with higher risks of recession. For instance, in a recent report it notes that Oregon is “one of 22 states that are either in a recession or on the precipice of a downturn.”

https://www.axios.com/local/portland/2025/10/15/oregon-recession-fears-rise-amid-layoffs-slowdown
 

The state’s revenue outlook has gotten worse and the room for change with the budget has turned to none and is projected to become a loss ($373 million) for the next two years.
https://www.opb.org/article/2025/09/05/think-out-loud-oregon-budget-politics-deficit-funding/#:~:text=Think%20Out%20Loud-,Oregon%20could%20be%20facing%20a%20%24373%20million%20hole%20in%20its,How%20might%20state%20leaders%20respond%3F&text=Sept.,5%2C%202025%2010%3A29%20a.m.

However, economic observers still reject the idea that Oregon is currently in a recession. The forecast describes the state as in a growth and slowdown but “likely avoiding a recession” so long as the national economy holds up.

https://www.orcities.org/resources/communications/bulletin/oregon-economy-slowing-25

While Oregon’s economy shows signs of stress and the risk of entering recession has increased, the claim that it is entering a recession currently is false or unsupported. The more accurate description seems to be that Oregon is experiencing a slowdown, but is not in a recession.

Answer 5

This claim is not entirely accurate. Although Oregon is on the brink of a recession, it has not fully entered one yet. Analyses from Moody's Analytics indicate that "Oregon is one of 22 states either in a recession or close to it," citing factors such as slowing immigration, tariffs, and federal job cuts. The state's chief economist described the economy as being in a phase of "muddling through," with slow growth expected in the short term and a potential recovery projected for 2026. Contributing to this slowdown are negative growth in manufacturing, construction, and financial activities, diminished labor momentum, and a significant budget deficit anticipated over the next two years.

Sources: https://www.statesmanjournal.com/story/news/politics/2025/08/27/oregon-state-government-economic-forecast-august-2025/85785915007/ 

https://www.oregon.gov/das/oea/Documents/OEA-Forecast-0925.pdf 

https://www.axios.com/local/portland/2025/10/15/oregon-recession-fears-rise-amid-layoffs-slowdown

Answer 6

This claim is hard to categorize, but overall false. Technically speaking, a recession is defined as a 2-quarter drop in GDP (National Bureau of Economic Research). This threshold has not been reached, however, there are other indicators of recession that have been met, and many economists argue that Oregon is heading towards recession. But the bottom line is that no economist can say with 100% certainty that we will enter a recession until we actually do. Therefore, the claim that we "are entering" a recession is misleading and untrue. Small caveat: there is still a possibility that this claim will be true in the near future and Oregon will enter a recession; however no one knows now if we will or won't. 

I reviewed the most recent Oregon Economic and Revenue Forecast collected by the Department of Administrative Services, in which I found this excerpt: 

"While every economic cycle bears unique characteristics, a survey of modern history shows few instances when inflation-adjusted GDP growth dipped to 1% or less in year-on-year terms, and the economy did not slip into recession. The growth statistics will be perilously close to this threshold in the latter portion of 2025. In the first half of this year, annualized growth was just 1.2%; the consensus forecast sees Q3 and Q4 at just 1.0% and 1.2%, respectively. If such a forecast is realized, economic growth will slow to 1.0% by year-end (q4/q4). As such, even a mild economic shock during such a period of vulnerability could have outsized negative consequences. This is a significant factor underpinning the consensus estimate of recession probability at 35%." 

https://www.oregon.gov/das/oea/Documents/OEA-Forecast-0925.pdf 

A recession probability of 35% is not "entering a recession". This claim is false. 

Answer 7

After some research, I found this claim to be mostly true but a bit exaggerated/misleading. Although Oregon is on the brink of a recession, it is not currently in one, but there is a high risk of it entering a recession in the near future, although they are trying to avoid it. Indeed, Oregon's economy is currently at significant risk, with a high amount of layoffs and a rising unemployment rate, and slowed growth. 

https://www.opb.org/article/2025/09/05/think-out-loud-oregon-budget-politics-deficit-funding/ This first source is a conversation between Dave Miller and Carl Riccadonna on OPB's "Think Out Loud." Carl Riccadonna is the state economist, so his thoughts on Oregon's current economy have proved valuable. This source talks about the 375 million dollar budget shortfall, reversing the nearly 500 million dollar cushion that was planned to have. They also talk about how the employment growth has weakened, and there is a heightened economic uncertainty within the state of Oregon. This source, however, does state that this does not mean recession, and it is possible we can avoid it entirely 

https://www.oregonlive.com/business/2025/09/oregon-mass-layoffs-approach-great-recession-levels.html. This article focuses on the mass amounts of layoffs that have occurred in 2025, ruining this state's labor market. This source compares the average number of Oregon's layoffs a month to the job cuts that happened in 2008 and 2009 during the Great Recession. They also report that some of Oregon's biggest corporations, like Intel, Nike, Wells Fargo, and OHSU, have experienced major job cuts, but that even so, unemployment is still at a 5% moderate level if viewed by historical standards, which suggests that after losing a job, they can find work pretty quickly.

https://oregonbusiness.com/in-conversation-oregon-state-employment-economist-gail-krumenauer/ This source talks about the statistics of the job market and how certain jobs are experiencing a loss in job numbers, for instance, manufacturing has probably received the biggest loss, with 4.5% as well as construction, which has a loss of 4%. Meanwhile, jobs within healthcare have actually seen an increase of 3.8%, which offsets some of the losses of other jobs. It also explains that there are some uncertainties tied to things like tariffs, high interest rates, and manufacturing. The author takes a cautionary approach to whether or not Oregon is in a recession, but does point out signs of risk. 

 

Answer 8

I would say this claim is a bit exaggerated as from what I have read Oregon has not actually gone into a recession, granted it could go into one if it's not careful. When reading a transcript of a broadcast from Oregon Public Broadcast, which featured the host talking to Oregon's state economist Carl Riccadonna and Democratic state senator Kate Liber. While the H.R. 1 bill and the new tariffs are definitely going to be having a negative effect on employment rates and the amount of services the state can keep open and supply. If Oregon is careful with its budgeting and uses its reserved money efficiently, the state can hopefully weather the changes until the budget is able to calm down once again. The League of Oregon Cities also had a summary of the impacts of the new H.R. 1 polices which stated that the uncertainties of the new tariffs were mostly diminished during the summer of 2025. This shows that there is still hope for Oregon not to enter into a recession. I also find it prudent to note that in the very same article that was listed above in this claim, which was produced by Oregon Capital Chronicle. There was a quote at the very end of the article by Riccadonna, saying "I always caution that the stock market is not the economy. Nevertheless, it's an important barometer of the economy, and with financial markets showing this robust performance, I think it's an encouraging signal that we are not in a recession or on the cusp of recession".

https://www.opb.org/article/2025/09/05/think-out-loud-oregon-budget-politics-deficit-funding/ 

https://www.orcities.org/resources/communications/bulletin/oregon-economy-slowing-25

https://oregoncapitalchronicle.com/2025/08/27/oregon-economy-slows-will-take-888-million-revenue-hit-in-next-two-years-from-trump-budget/

Answer 9

After doing some research on Oregon's current economic state I think that this statement is very exaggerated and there is no complete evidence that we are in a full recession. Inflammation is still a concern as well as people losing jobs, but the data that I found does not meet the exact definition of what a recession is. 

Oregon Live reports that in 2024 job loss was very bad and comparable to the Great Recession, but as of recent economic conditions are not as bad right now. The report shows moderate growth in Oregon's income and employment levels, meaning that our economy is not steadily climbing, but still not a full recession. 
League of Oregon Cities says the economy is slowing, with job losses, but still is not expecting a recession, as long as the national economy remains relatively stable. However, they report that certain sector specific recessions are possible in weaker industries.