Every year following the present, is likely to set a new heat record

Question

In 2023, the average global temperature was 2.12°F above pre-industrial levels, which at the time made it the record high. However, in 2024, it was found that the average global temperature had risen even higher – to 2.30°F above pre-industrial levels. If you look at data from previous years (https://science.nasa.gov/earth/explore/earth-indicators/global-temperature/) there is an obvious pattern in rising heat temperatures. 

That being said, with the state of global warming and climate change, I find it extremely unlikely that the coming years’ average temperatures will stabilize, or drop for that matter. Because of the data pattern, I believe the global temperature will unfortunately continue to rise.

Answer 1

The claim being argued is that average global temperatures have been rising every year and will continue to rise, setting new heat records each time. Based on the source used, the evidence provided by NASA supports this claim, and I have concluded it to be true. NASA (https://science.nasa.gov/earth/explore/earth-indicators/global-temperature/) has been tracking land-ocean temperatures since 1880. Their key takeaway from this research is that the 10 most recent years are the warmest on record, and according to the graph, temperatures have been following an upward trend.

Many other organizations have been tracking similar data, including the NOAA (https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-global-temperature). According to them, 2024 was the warmest year since global records began in 1850, with the anomaly being 0.18 degrees warmer than the previous record. The NOAA says this rise is due to “human-produced greenhouse gases causing the Earth to absorb more energy than it radiates back to space.”

Another article by the United Nations (https://www.un.org/en/climatechange/science/causes-effects-climate-change) supports both the claim of rising global temperatures and the underlying cause. They note that greenhouse gas emissions are 68% caused by fossil fuels. This not only explains the years temperature increase but also contributes to severe storms, increased drought, loss of species, and other environmental impacts.

Comments

Claim 1: “Every year following the present, is likely to set a new heat record”

Rationale:
After conducting research, I determined that this claim is true. The phrasing “is likely” indicates a high probability rather than a guarantee, which makes the statement more reasonable and scientifically accurate. According to NASA’s Global Temperature dataset, a reliable government source based on decades of climate research, Earth’s average temperature has shown a consistent upward trend over the past century, with only minor periods of temporary cooling such as the early 1940s. Overall, global temperatures have been rising almost every year. For instance, in 2023 the global average temperature was 2.12°F above pre-industrial levels, and by 2024 it had increased further to 2.3°F. This data supports the conclusion that future years are likely to continue breaking heat records. From additional outside research, this NOAA article on climate asks, “can we slow or even reverse global warming”. It goes on to support the claim made on NewsDetective, saying that, “ we are unlikely to keep global warming in this century below 2.7° Fahrenheit (1.5° Celsius) compared to pre-industrial temperatures”.
Original Claims article: https://science.nasa.gov/earth/explore/earth-indicators/global-temperature/
NOAA:  https://www.climate.gov/news-features/climate-qa/can-we-slow-or-even-reverse-global-warming

Answer 2

The claim is true because it states the Earth is likely to set a new heat temperature record, not that it definitely will. The evidence I found aligns with this argument because the data that Earth continues to heat up is accurate and there are slim possibilities for humanity to reverse global warming.

The NASA article explains how the Earth has been steadily increasing in temperature and that the last ten years have been the warmest on record. NASA is a very credible source for accurate and unbiased information, especially in how the website presents the data with summaries of graphs and charts instead of sharing their opinions on climate change. Also, the article stated that their information aligns with the NOAA’s (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s) research along with other international groups.

I found an article by the World Meteorological Organization titled, “Global climate predictions show temperatures expected to remain at or near record levels in the coming 5 years.” This article stated there is an 80% chance that one of the years before 2030 will set a new record high for the warmest global temperature, which supports the claim that Earth will continue to get warmer. This data is similar to that stated in the NASA article and the WMO is credible because their organization is governed by experts and representatives from around the globe.

However, I found an NOAA article titled, “What evidence exists that Earth is warming and that humans are the main cause?” stating similar data about the Earth’s temperature throughout recent history and included evidence from animals and ecosystems that the Earth is continuously warming. The NOAA added significant information to the conversation with their reasoning that humans are the sole cause of global warming. The article stated, “without dramatic action in the next couple of decades, we are unlikely to keep global warming in this century below 2.7° Fahrenheit” compared to pre-industrial times. The article emphasizes that it’s never “too late” to enforce policies that could slow down or even reverse global warming, but the whole world would have to ban the human emissions of heat-trapping gasses. The only solutions that we currently know of, according to the NOAA, would be, “transitioning to energy sources that do not emit greenhouse gases,” like windmills, solar panels, biofuels, and nuclear sources or various geoengineering theories. The NOAA is a trusted source because it is an unbiased research organization and this particular article cites their information from two different research studies.

In conclusion, the claim is true because it is likely that global warming will continue to increase proportionately and there are slight chances that humans can intervene.

 

Original claim’s article: https://science.nasa.gov/earth/explore/earth-indicators/global-temperature/ 

WMO article: https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/global-climate-predictions-show-temperatures-expected-remain-or-near-record-levels-coming-5-years 

NOAA article: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/climate-qa/can-we-slow-or-even-reverse-global-warming 

Comments

I agree that NASA and NOAA are credible sources, but I think it would make your argument even stronger if you explained how they collect the data and why it’s considered accurate. For example, NASA’s temperature data is based on satellite observations and NOAA uses ground-based stations. Including that difference could help show that multiple independent methods confirm the same trend.

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I liked reading your perspective on this claim. I used the same WMO article but I also read the article NOAA which expands on the topic more so overall, I appreciate how in depth you went.

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This is a really amazing fact check, i really appreciate the use of many sources and incorporating real statistics as a way to back up your statement. NASA and NOAA are two very credible services.

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This fact check is very well put together. You really dive deep in to the validity of the claim and over all do a great job.

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I really appreciate this claim and how much research you put into both the primary source and in researching secondary sources. However I would say that even though trends do show a general rise in temperatures over years it is not every single year like the claim stated so I would categorize  this claim and true but exaggerated.

Answer 3

From doing deeper research into this claim, I can conclude that this is a true statement. 

Going on from the NASA report, which is a trusted source, the temperature is slowly continuing to rise on the earth. Showing graphs from 1880, when record-keeping began, the earth's temperature has risen approximately 2.65 degrees Fahrenheit. 

I did find another source from Climate.gov (https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-global-temperature) which also goes on to say that the temperature of the earth has risen and that it's risen mainly from "human-produced greenhouse gases." It also shows rankings of other climate issues that happened in 2024, such as: being the warmest year on record for both the Northern and Southern hemispheres, being the warmest year on record for land and ocean areas and for upper ocean heat content being the highest on record. 

I also found another source/article from WMO (https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/wmo-confirms-2024-warmest-year-record-about-155degc-above-pre-industrial-level) which explains how the past ten years have been the warmest years on record (2015-2024). The article also mentions that even though we happen to go up 1.5 degrees C, does not mean that we've failed the Paris Agreement Long-term temperature goals, but that it's important to recognize because it can go up 1.5 degrees C each year or go down 1.5 degrees C a year. 

With my sources and going back to the NASA source, I can conclude that this statement is true that 2024 was the warmest year and that the temperatures may continue to rise even if humans do try to intervene

Comments

Good job using trusted sources I like that you included some of the causes of global warming but I think you can go deeper and bring up how the industrial activities that we depend on have raised atmospheric carbon dioxide levels by nearly 50% since 1750. Another thing to bring up is that if a more active sun caused the warming, scientists would expect warmer temperatures in all layers of the atmosphere. Instead they found cooling in the upper atmosphere and a warming at the surface and lower parts of the atmosphere, which is because the greenhouse gasses are slowing heat loss from the lower atmosphere.

https://science.nasa.gov/climate-change/causes/

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This response is very great because you included multiple trustworthy sources. I found it really interesting that this has been dated back to 1880, which makes this claim very significant and proves this information is substantial because the rising temperatures have been occurring for a long period of time.

Answer 4

The claim that each following year will likely set a new heat record is largely true, though it overstates the consistency of the pattern. 

According to NOAA Climate.gov, a trusted government source that compiles climate data and analysis based on decades of research, 2024 was the warmest recorded year since global records began in 1850, with the ten warmest years all occurring in the past decade. This data demonstrates a clear strong upward trend in global temperatures, consistent with ongoing climate change. The NASA Global Temperature Record, which this claim originally draws from, reports nearly identical trends. Since both NOAA and NASA independently show the same pattern of rising global temperatures, it is reasonable to conclude that the claim is largely true. This agreement between two reputable sources confirms that the original evidence was credible and scientifically reliable. 

However, both NASA and NOAA  note that temperature change does not rise in a straight line. Natural climate patterns such as La Niña, which temporarily cools the Pacific Ocean, and Solar cycles, which slightly alter the Sun’s energy output, can cause temporary dips even with a long-term warming trend. While it’s very likely that global temperatures will continue to rise over time, it is not guaranteed that every single year following 2024 will set a new record. 

In conclusion, while multiple authoritative sources confirm that global temperatures are rising, the claim that every following year will set a new heat record is exaggerated because natural variability means individual yearly records after 2024 may not always break previous ones.

Comments

First of all, your answer is well-structured. Also, it’s great because you used some reliable sources and even inserted links. In addition, I think it’s really good that you mentioned and explained La Niña using both materials. Therefore, your answer is concise and easy to understand.

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I really liked how you dug deeper, and found this claim to be an exaggeration. Though it may be true over time, the claim states that temps will rise every year, where you proved that might not be the case. I also think it's cool how you included the natural cycles of the earth to explain why the pattern isn't linear.

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I liked how you found this claim to be slightly true but still an exaggeration and went deeper into your research. It is easy to come to the conclusion that it is true because of what you first see when you read the article, and while the claim states that temperatures rise every year, you proved that it is not likely every year but over time with good explanations to back it up.

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This claim is really well researched and I would agree that the claim is over exaggerated. I appreciate how much effort you put into researching secondary sources to figure out that temperatures might not rise every year because of La Niña vs El Niño years.

Answer 5

After finding more articles I have found that this claim is true. The article above shows a detailed graph of data from 1880 to 2024 outlining the increase in temperature over the years as it has slowly increased. I was also able to find an article at the NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) that shows similar graphs that are slowly increasing over the years. At climate.gov it states that, “2024 was the warmest year since global records began in 1850” (climate.gov). It then continues to say that future warming of the Earth depends on the amount of carbon dioxide we emit. In graphs it shows our carbon dioxide emission is still expected to continue to go up and it is projected that by the end of the century the temperature will go up at least 5 degrees. I have also found an article on prevention web that states that about half of the world will see an increase in temperatures at least once a month for the rest of the decade. 

In conclusion, the claim is true that global temperatures will continue to rise for the rest of the decade unless humans are able to reduce the amount of carbon and greenhouse emissions produced.

Sources:

NOAA: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-global-temperature

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/global/202401

Prevention Web: https://www.preventionweb.net/news/more-half-world-could-see-record-setting-heat-every-year-2100

Comments

Good job on your fact check. I think that pulling information from NOAA is a good idea because it shows that this data is more universal than just one source. I think that it would also be good to make sure that we cannot confirm whether we %100 will see a warmer year next year or not as there are many factors that could affect this number. We do however see a trend that temperatures are increasing which you pointed out.

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Good jog doing more research into the claim. You did a good job pulling evidence and citing the sources to prove that the claim is true and that there has been a trend of warmer temperatures almost every year since 1880

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I like how you connected the two graphs, I found that in my research too! I also like how you included the causation for the cause (global warming), and have multiple sources to back it up.

Answer 6

This claim could be true. The NOAA did a monthly global climate report that showed January 2025 had an average temperature of 1.33ºC, while January 2024 had an average temperature of 1.30ºC. The rest of the months have been close, but have not surpassed 2024's temperature. A big reason for the increase in temperature was due to El Niño, a climate pattern that causes the ocean surface to be warmer than usual. This is said to continue throughout this year and 2026. Carbon Brief says 2025 is on track to be the second to third hottest year on record, using WMO charts. I think it could be true, but we'll have to see the rest of the monthly reports. 

Comments

I think with a little more detail you could really back up your point more. I like that you added statistics from the article but I feel like with more explanation on El Nino and how that could effect the temperature of earth it would help with understanding your point a little more.

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Nice fact check, I think a little more detail would be helpful! Did you find any opposing sources?

Answer 7

I believe this claim to be true. I appreciate the source used to back this claim which was the NASA article, Global Temperature - Earth Indicator. This article goes into depth on how worldwide temperatures have been on a constant rise since around the 1970s due to climate change. I trust this information because NASA is a very credible source. They have been one of leaders of everything science and space for decades. They have very little bias, and have lots of integrity when it comes to the truthfulness of information. According to the United States Environmental Protection Agency, "2023 was the warmest year on record, 2016 was the second-warmest year, and 2014–2023 was the warmest decade on record since thermometer-based observations began. Global average surface temperature has risen at an average rate of 0.17°F per decade since 1901" (United States Environmental Protection Agency, 2024). This article backs the information from the NASA article to be true. They got world temperature data that ended in 2023, but all trend was the same. Temperatures rising each year. Also because the NASA article said 2024 was the hottest year on record, re emphases the truth of this claim. Both the NASA article and the United States Environmental Protection Agency both cross claim information from NOAA which is a extremely verifiable source. The fact that temperatures are rising at a constant rate is extremely unfortunate. When it comes to climate change as a whole, due to societal factors it affects some people more than others. According to research done by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, “The most vulnerable groups, including children, the elderly, people with preexisting health conditions, outdoor workers, people of color, and people with low income, are at an even higher risk because of the compounding factors from climate change” (NOAA, 2021). This is a extremely negative part of this issue. According the the NOAA research, heat is one of the most deadly weather conditions. Not only is the increase in temperature a issue, but climate change has many deadly weapons. These include increase in greenhouse gases, wildfires, flooding, and hurricanes. This is going to be the battle of our lifetime but NOAA states that if we can somehow get to zero emissions, we can improve the issue. We have to work together.

Answer 8

This claim is true, stating that with every coming year, the global temperature will supersede the previous years, therefore claiming that the global temperature will rise every upcoming year. The author was careful with their wording however, and used words such as "likely" and "I believe," making their claim come off as less straightforward, and more opinion, despite having data to support their thought process. Off the bat, this claim comes from the NASA website, already giving it a good amount of credibility for it is an official source. Another article was written on this same topic, backing up the claim. NOAA's Climate.gov had released statistics also stating that from 2015-2024 we have had the warmest global temperatures compared to any decade ever. This article had also stated that temperatures are rising higher and faster now than in the past, supporting the idea that these temperatures will continue to do so. Another report that a 2024 was the hottest year our earth had experienced from Berkely Earth. Also stating that in the past 50 years, "global warming has proceeded in an almost linear fashion," but the spike of heat in 2024 had thrown the data just a bit. However, this further supports the notion that if the pattern continues, our global temperatures will in fact get higher each year. 

Climate change: global temperature

Global Temperature Report for 2024

Answer 9

After researching this topic, I conclude that this claim is true. The claim states that the earth is likely to set new heat records not that it certainly will. The author used a known website, NASA, that is unbiased and heavily focuses on the science instead of just opinions. The NASA article includes a graph that shows how each year the temperatures rise, 2024 being the hottest recorded. It states "earth's global temperature in 2024 was 2.3 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than 20th century baseline 1951-1980," with the recent 10 years being the warmest on record. This information lines up with another article I found when researching, NOAA, who says that "2024 was the warmest year since global records began in 1850 by a wide margin." Since both articles include graphs and facts that are very similar and show the same patterns, it is fair that this claim is true. In the article, it goes on to say that the reason for the rising temperatures is because of "human produced greenhouse gases" which throws off the balance of earth's energy, making earth absorb more energy than it radiates. This has been going on for the past ten years, and taking this into consideration it is obvious that the earth will only continue to get hotter as the years go on. In another article, WMO, it states that "ocean warming in 2024 played a key role in the record high temperatures." This means that not only the surface temperature has risen but so has the ocean temperatures, which is a big factor in why the earth has been getting warmer. With all of these factors playing a role in the rising temperatures on earth, it is easy to conclude that this claim is true in saying the years following will set new heat records. 

Answer 10

This claim is true and to expand on it, I Iooked at another article from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), confirmed that the last ten years since 2015, every year has been the hottest on record. 2024 recorded a global mean temperature 1.55 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. 

In your supporting article by NASA, their number confirms 1.28 degrees Celsius (2.3 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than the 20th century baseline. The numbers are similar, but the NASA article doesn't expand as much on how these temperatures impact our planet. However, I found another article from NASA that is more of an in-depth analysis. The article blames the warming trend on certain man-made causes are, "Driven by heat-trapping carbon dioxide, methane, and other greenhouse gases." NASA also mentions heat trends like El Niño and La Niña, "which alternately warm and cool the tropical Pacific Ocean."

WMO confirms 2024 as warmest year on record at about 1.55°C above pre-industrial level

Global Temperature - Earth Indicator - NASA Science

Temperatures Rising: NASA Confirms 2024 Warmest Year on Record - NASA