This is largely speculative regarding an alternative historical scenario, but such an outcome was unlikely based on available historical evidence. According to a State Department analysis, the USSR—established in 1922 with fifteen republics—was in decline by 1987 due to severe economic problems, costly arms competition, and imperial overstretch.
When Mikhail Gorbachev assumed leadership in 1985, he attempted reforms through "perestroika" (economic restructuring) and "glasnost" (political openness). However, these initiatives failed to reverse the economic decline because Gorbachev remained too committed to socialist principles to implement genuine free-market reforms.
The Soviet Union's collapse resulted primarily from internal factors: economic stagnation, ethnic separatism, and rising nationalism among constituent republics, including Russia, the Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania), Ukraine, and Georgia. These internal pressures, rather than U.S. intervention, were the primary drivers of the USSR's disintegration. As the Office of the Historian notes, "While Bush supported these independence movements, U.S. policy was reactive. Bush chose to let events unfold organically, careful not to do anything to worsen Gorbachev's position."
The State Department analysis reinforces this view, emphasizing that although Cold War competition contributed to Soviet economic strain, the Bush administration actually supported Gorbachev's reform efforts and sought to maintain regional stability.
